The Central Statistics Office has released the Principal Demographic Results from the census taken on the night of 23rd April 2006. A key factor in the demand for health and social care services will be the structure of the population and how that is expected to change. The total population is 4,239,848 persons, compared with 3,917,203 in April 2002, representing an increase of 8.2% in four years. Click here to view the Census 2006 Principal Demographic Results

Figure 1 below shows the distribution of the population by current HSE Areas extrapolated back to 1981. As can be seen in the graph, most of the growth in population has occurred in the last 10 years.

HSE Dublin Mid-Leinster has the greatest share of the population at 28.7%, followed by HSE South - 25.5%, HSE West - 23.9% and HSE Dublin North-East - 21.9%.

Whilst the overall population has grown by 8.2% since Census 2002, the percentage growth in the population within HSE areas is as follows: HSE Dublin North East -11.6%, HSE South - 7.8%, HSE West – 7.5% and HSE Mid-Leinster – 6.8%.

Figure 1. HSE Area Population 1981-2006

Figure 1, HSE Area Population 1981-2006.pdf (size 88.8 KB)

Table 1 below shows the number of persons by age group in 2002 and 2006, with the change in numbers and percentage changes. Looking at the population in 2006 compared to 2002, there was an increase in the numbers in all age groups, other than those between 10 and 19 years. It also shows that whilst the biggest percentage changes occurred in the 25-29 and 85+  age groups,  the greatest real change occurred in the 25-29 year age group (up 60,385).

Table 1 Irish population by 5 year age group, 2002 and 2006.

Table 1 Irish population by 5 year age group, 2002 and 2006.pdf (size 138.4 KB)

In addition to providing census data at regular intervals (usually every 5 years), the Central Statistics Office (CSO) also provide national population projections. These are based on the preceding census, and estimated fertility, mortality and migration patterns. In recent years, life expectancy, although still below the EU 15 average, has been on the rise and the gap is closing. This pattern is expected to continue. More problematically though, is the ability to estimate accurately what the net migration pattern will be into the future.

The last set of CSO projections were published in December 2004, based on the 2002 census, for the period 2006 to 2036. They provide a set of projections based on six possible permutations of fertility and migration. In addition, the Economic and Social Research Institute have also compiled population projections for the period up to 2021 using their own set of assumptions, as have some private sector organisations e.g. NCB Stockbrokers. Figure 2 shows how these projections compare with each other - using their high and low estimates where applicable. With the exception of the CSO Low data, all the other projections seem to be following a similar growth pattern, with the population estimated to reach 5.8 million by 2036.

Figure 2 Population Projections 2005-2036

Figure 2, population Projections 2005-2036.pdf (size 90.4 KB)

Using the more detailed CSO High data, Figure 3 outlines how the age-groups will change in that period.

Figure 3 Population Projections 2005-2036, CSO High, by age group

Figure 3, population Projections 2005-2036, CSO High, by age group.pdf (size 119.2 KB)

With the exception of the 15-24 year age group, all other age groups will show real growth, up to about 2016. Thereafter some of the age groups begin to plateau out or fall off (0-14, 25-44), with others showing moderate growth (15-24) , and others showing continued growth (45-64, 65+).

Table 2 outlines the actual and percentage change expected to occur by age group.

Table 2 actual and percentage change expected to occur by age group.pdf (size 75.5 KB)

From a health service perspective, the overall population will show substantial growth with demands increasing at almost every level. It is expected that smaller family sizes, and increased internal migration will alter the ability of nuclear families to care for each other in a way that was possible in earlier times. In addition, as a result of expected net positive migration over the period, the health service will need to provide for a multi-ethnic mix of cultures in the delivery of health care.

Within the age groups, there will be a continuing need to provide an increased comprehensive child health service as the numbers in this age group continue to grow. Likewise for those in the middle years 45-64, where growth in numbers is also substantial, and the burden of chronic diseases begin to emerge. However, the most significant early and continuing impact on the health service will be in the 65+ year age group, increasing by 146% in 20 years. In that period the 65+ year age group will have gone from contributing to just over 11% of the population in 2006 to almost 20% by 2036. The need to plan for their needs, particularly in the primary care arena and with a particular focus on chronic diseases management will be crucial.

Related Link:

Link to HSE’s Health Status Report Shows the State of Health of the Nation

Link to Health Status in Ireland: Challenges for the Future - Dr. Patrick Doorley

Link to HSE Performance Monitoring Report May 08 - Population Projections 2011 - 2041 (PDF 422.8 KB)

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